Price. News. What Matters. What I’m Doing.

Welcome to this week’s Bitcoin Weekly Recap.

No altcoin noise. No complicated charts. Just what happened to Bitcoin this week, what actually mattered, and what I’m watching next.

And this week, one piece of research stood out to me above everything else.

The Big Story: The Case for a 10% Bitcoin Allocation

River recently published research titled “The Case for a 10% Bitcoin Allocation.”

10%.

That’s the number that caught my attention.

River’s research argues that at least a 10% Bitcoin allocation can make sense for a typical long-term investor.

Now compare that with where the investment world currently sits.

According to River, investment advisers collectively have approximately:

0.008% allocated to Bitcoin.

Think about the size of that gap.

We’re talking about potentially moving from essentially zero Bitcoin exposure toward allocations measured in whole percentage points.

And we’re talking about an industry controlling an enormous amount of the world’s wealth.

This is why I continue to believe we’re early.

How Do We Get to $840,000 Bitcoin?

This is where the math becomes interesting.

There are roughly $333 trillion in global financial assets.

River modeled what could happen as Bitcoin becomes a more normal part of investment portfolios.

If 40% of global portfolios eventually held an average 4% Bitcoin allocation, River estimates approximately:

$5.3 TRILLION could flow into Bitcoin.

But here’s where it gets even more interesting.

New money entering Bitcoin doesn’t necessarily increase Bitcoin’s market value dollar-for-dollar.

When buyers arrive and existing Bitcoin owners don’t want to sell, buyers have to offer increasingly higher prices.

River estimates that from 2022 through 2025, $1 of net inflows corresponded with approximately $3 of Bitcoin market-cap growth.

Using that type of multiplier, River’s model arrives at approximately:

$840,000 PER BITCOIN

That’s roughly a $17.5 trillion Bitcoin market value.

I’m not telling you Bitcoin is guaranteed to reach $840,000.

It’s a model.

But the model illustrates something I think is far more important:

There is potentially trillions of dollars of institutional capital coming after an asset capped at 21 million coins.

That’s the story.

Bitcoin This Week

Bitcoin spent much of this week in the high-$70,000 range after recently trading above $82,000.

Meanwhile, ETF flows cooled after the previous week’s surge, and investors became more cautious ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision.

None of that changes my long-term view.

In fact, periods like this interest me far more than periods when Bitcoin is exploding higher and everyone suddenly wants to buy.

The Number of the Week: 0.008%

Forget $840,000 for a second.

0.008% might actually be the more important number.

That’s River’s estimate of investment advisers’ current collective Bitcoin allocation.

Imagine what happens if that number becomes 1%.

Then 2%.

Then 5%.

Never mind 10%.

There are only 21 million Bitcoin, and not all of them are actually available for sale.

That’s why I want to accumulate before Bitcoin becomes a standard portfolio allocation.

Not after.

Why Next Week Matters

The Federal Reserve announces its next interest-rate decision on Wednesday, September 16.

After hotter inflation data, expectations have shifted sharply toward a potential rate increase.

That could mean volatility for Bitcoin and markets generally.

Bitcoin could fall.

Bitcoin could rally.

I’m not trying to predict Wednesday’s candle.

If Bitcoin gets cheaper, I’m interested.

If it moves higher, I’m still accumulating.

I’m looking at where Bitcoin could be in 5, 10 and 20 years, not where it trades Wednesday afternoon.

What I’m Doing

I’m accumulating Bitcoin.

And if you’ve been waiting on the sidelines, I think this is an important time to start thinking seriously about building your position.

You don’t need to buy an entire Bitcoin tomorrow.

Start with $500.

Start with $1,000.

Work toward 0.1 Bitcoin.

Then 0.25.

Then 0.5.

Then one.

Because while everyone else is debating whether Bitcoin goes up or down next week, I’m watching something much bigger:

Wall Street is figuring out how much Bitcoin it wants to own.

Today, investment advisers collectively have almost nothing.

River is making the case for 10%.

And its adoption model shows a possible path toward $840,000 Bitcoin.

I want to be accumulating before allocations like these become normal.

Not after.

That’s what matters to me this week.

Think long. Act early.

— Prakash